This shows you the differences between two versions of the page.
Both sides previous revision Previous revision Next revision | Previous revision Next revisionBoth sides next revision |
forecasting [2008-01-13 23:30] – 121.45.187.182 | forecasting [2014-02-11 05:45] – nik |
---|
| |
| |
==== some other rules for Efeective Forecasting ==== | |
from Paul Saffo's talk at [[the long now foundation]] summarised by stewart brand | ==== some other rules for Effective Forecasting ==== |
| from Paul Saffo's talk at [[:long now|the long now foundation]] summarised by stewart brand |
| |
Reflecting on his 25 years as a forecaster, Paul Saffo pointed out that a forecaster's job is not to predict outcomes, but to map the "cone of uncertainty" on a subject. Where are the edges of what might happen? (Uncertainty is cone-shaped because it expands as you project further into the future--- next decade has more surprises in store than next week.) | Reflecting on his 25 years as a forecaster, Paul Saffo pointed out that a forecaster's job is not to predict outcomes, but to map the "cone of uncertainty" on a subject. Where are the edges of what might happen? (Uncertainty is cone-shaped because it expands as you project further into the future--- next decade has more surprises in store than next week.) |
---- | ---- |
| |
| see also [[:future fabulators/non predictive strategy]], [[:future fabulators/scenario planning]] |