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prediction_market [2013-10-08 09:42] – nikprediction_market [2013-10-08 11:43] (current) – nik
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 ==== Prediction Markets ==== ==== Prediction Markets ====
 +
 +A tool for collating group opinions (as they change over time) about well defined events using market principles. A probabilistic forecast of events.
 +
   * [[wp>Prediction_market]]   * [[wp>Prediction_market]]
 +  * http://predictionbook.com/
 +  * long bets
 +
 +** commentry / reading / notes**
   * http://www.gwern.net/Prediction%20markets   * http://www.gwern.net/Prediction%20markets
   * http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/the_80_forecast.html   * http://www.overcomingbias.com/2006/12/the_80_forecast.html
   * http://ashokarao.com/2013/07/04/on-bets/   * http://ashokarao.com/2013/07/04/on-bets/
-  * http://predictionbook.com/ +  * [[wp>Calibrated_probability_assessment]]
-  * long bets +
-  * http://wrongtomorrow.com+
   * [[futarchy]]   * [[futarchy]]
  • prediction_market.1381225336.txt.gz
  • Last modified: 2013-10-08 09:42
  • by nik